New Nomogram Predicts Death, Recurrence Risk in Papillary Thyroid Cancer

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Nomogram can predict 10-year disease-specific death and recurrence.
Nomogram can predict 10-year disease-specific death and recurrence.

(HealthDay News) — A new nomogram has excellent discriminatory ability and accuracy in predicting 10-year disease-specific death and recurrence for papillary thyroid carcinoma, according to a study published in Head & Neck.

Brian H.H. Lang, from the University of Hong Kong, and colleagues developed and validated a nomogram to provide individualized prognosis (death and recurrence) for papillary thyroid carcinoma.

Results showed the nomogram had excellent discrimination in predicting 10-year disease-specific death and recurrence (0.984 and 0.743, respectively). One-hundred percent of the patients surviving at 10 years had a score <30, and those who died within 10 years had a score ≥30. 

Almost all the patients (91.04%) were disease-free within 10 years with a score of <17.

"Using a competing-risk model, a nomogram was created with excellent discriminatory ability and accuracy in predicting 10-year disease-specific death and recurrence for [papillary thyroid carcinoma]," the researchers wrote. "Our results implied its potential for wider use in other populations."

Reference

  1. Lang BHH, Wong CKH, Yu HW, Lee KE. Postoperative nomogram for predicting disease-specific death and recurrence in papillary thyroid carcinoma. Head Neck. 2015;doi:10.1002/hed.24201.
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