HealthDay News — A new model for predicting breast cancer in Black women is well calibrated and has moderate predictive ability, according to a study published online Oct. 8 in the Journal of Clinical Oncology.

Julie R. Palmer, Sc.D., from the Slone Epidemiology Center at Boston University, and colleagues estimated breast cancer relative risks and attributable risks using data from Black women in three U.S. population-based case-control studies and combined with Surveillance, Epidemiology, End Results age- and race-specific incidence rates, with incorporation of competing mortality, to develop an absolute risk model. The model was validated among 51,798 participants of the Black Women’s Health Study, which included 1,515 women who developed invasive breast cancer. A second risk prediction model was developed using estrogen receptor (ER)-specific relative risks and attributable risks.

The researchers found that the model was well calibrated, with an expected/observed ratio of 1.01 (95 percent confidence interval, 0.95 to 1.07). Age-adjusted C statistics were 0.58 (95 percent confidence interval, 0.56 to 0.59) and 0.63 (95 percent confidence interval, 0.58 to 0.68) overall and among women younger than 40 years, respectively. In the model based on ER-specific relative risks and attributable risks, these measures were almost identical.

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“Because U.S. Black women have a disproportionately high rate of breast cancer deaths, improvement in early detection of breast cancer in this population is critical, especially in young Black women who have not yet reached the ages at which mammographic screening is typically begun,” Palmer said in a statement.

One author disclosed financial ties to Pfizer.

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