(HealthDay News) — A prognostic model has been developed and validated which has adequate discrimination for major outcomes in type 1 diabetes, according to a study published online in Diabetologia.

Sabita S. Soedamah-Muthu, PhD, from Wageningen University in the Netherlands, and colleagues developed a prognostic model and quantified its performance in independent cohorts. 

The researchers analyzed data from 1,973 participants with type 1 diabetes from the EURODIAB Prospective Complications Study who were followed for 7 years. Factors that were found to be prognostic for major outcomes were combined in a model, whose performance was tested in three prospective cohorts: the Pittsburgh Epidemiology of Diabetes Complications study (EDC; 554 participants); the Finnish Diabetic Nephropathy study (FinnDiane; 2,999 participants); and the Coronary Artery Calcification in Type 1 Diabetes study (CACTI, 580 participants). 

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Major coronary heart disease, stroke, end-stage renal failure, amputations, blindness and all-cause death were included as major outcomes.

During follow-up, 95 patients from EURODIAB developed major outcomes, the researchers found. HbA1c, waist-to-hip ratio, albumin/creatinine ratio and HDL cholesterol level were identified as prognostic factors. The model had adequate discriminative ability, with a concordance statistic (C-statistic) of 0.74. 

Similar discrimination was seen in the validation cohorts, with C-statistics of 0.79, 0.82, and 0.73 for EDC, FinnDiane and CACTI, respectively.

“Such a prognostic model may be helpful in clinical practice and for risk stratification in clinical trials,” the researchers wrote.

Two authors disclosed financial ties to the pharmaceutical industry.


  1. Soedamah-Muthu SS et al. Diabetologia. 2014;doi:10.1007/s00125-014-3358-x.