Current Cardiovascular Disease Risk Algorithms Work Well for Black Adults

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ACC/AHA model and Framingham Risk Score valid for heart disease prediction in black adults.
ACC/AHA model and Framingham Risk Score valid for heart disease prediction in black adults.

(HealthDay News) — Current cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk algorithms are valid for black adults, according to a study published in JAMA Cardiology.

Ervin R. Fox, MD, MPH, from the University of Mississippi Medical Center in Jackson, and colleagues developed and validated risk prediction models for CVD incidence in black adults in the Jackson Heart Study (JHS). Data were included for 3689 participants (mean age at baseline, 53 years).

The researchers found that 270 participants experienced a first CVD event over a median of 9.1 years. Modest improvement was seen with a simple combination of standard CVD risk factors, B-type natriuretic peptide, and ankle-brachial index, compared with a model without B-type natriuretic peptide and ankle-brachial index (C-statistics, 0.79). 

The reclassification improvement was not significantly different for this model vs the American College of Cardiology (ACC)/American Heart Association (AHA) CVD Pooled Cohort risk equations or the Framingham Risk Score (FHS). In the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities and Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis data, the models discriminated reasonably well (C-statistic range, 0.70 to 0.77).

"Our findings using the JHS data in the present study are valuable because they confirm that current FHS and ACC/AHA risk algorithms work well in black individuals and are not easily improved on," the researchers wrote. "A unique risk calculator for black adults may not be necessary."

Two authors disclosed financial ties to the pharmaceutical industry.

  1. Fox ER, Samdarshi TE, Musani SK, et al. Development and Validation of Risk Prediction Models for Cardiovascular Events in Black Adults: The Jackson Heart Study Cohort. JAMA Cardiol. 2016. doi:10.1001/jamacardio.2015.0300.
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